Sunday 1 February 2009

JANUARY 2009: WITHER ASSET PRICES??

If you want to know what is going on in the clock world then you have come to the right place. Of course any news of tavern clocks needs to be seen in the context of the antique market. So what is going on?? Some very prominent London antique dealers have ceased trading from premises and their stocks dispersed at auction. These dispersal sales have been quite successful. Elsewhere there are some fairs being cancelled and no doubt many where the organisers wish they were not now committed. And yet ... in December in Paris the year's record was set for a piece of furniture which sold for 3.6m Euro. Ok if you like commodes covered in ormulu, not my taste.
Nearer home, concern hangs in the air as to where our asset class stands as a safe haven or otherwise for money. All asset classes have fallen in value and the Christmas party chat was all about whether this or that asset has reached bottom. With clocks there are clearly two markets, the best and the rest. I shall come back to the rest but the best is showing mixed signals. In December, a Vulliamy longcase was auctioned by Bonhams as a barn discovery ( a stable actually). Don't you just love the romance. Well the estimate was £40-60k and the vendor must have been pleased with the hammer dropping at £100k. This was a classic Vulliamy longcase with the pedimented top encasing a regulator. Think how many of these you could buy in lieu of a certain type of commode.
Then the government began issuing new rescue initiatives every Sunday; have you noticed that nothing happens in parliament anymore and politicians only seem to work weekends?? Then of course we had Obamamania but none of this medicine is working yet and the car industry is being bailed out even though it is all foreign owned. I digress.
The small offering of clocks in the January 22nd auction by Christies had 15 lots on offer of which 12 sold. The key lots were the Knibb and Tompion table clocks. The Knibb estimate of £40-60k was respectably achieved with a premium inclusive price of £79250 whilst the Tompion estimate of £70-100k was met with a sale at £70850, premium inclusive. Draw your own conclusions but it is fairly clear that the top names are not producing estimate busting results even when estimates are being moderated. I wonder, when the market froths again, which of the three buyers made the best call as a store of value. Certainly with returns on cash at about 2% the braver will start taking a punt.
Tavern clock offerings in January were limited to ebay where a teardrop and a late mahogany example both reached their reserves and sold at under £2500. Not tiptop examples and a validation that the best and the rest are miles apart. However, for the budget buyer who would never stretch to the £20k+ levels of the best I thought the teardrop, at least, would make a handsome addition to a collection if well restored. If anyone wants further information about these offerings please get in touch.
Tavernicus added a shield dial to its inventory in the month, please have a look at the link.
Looking ahead, the big event in February is the sale by Drewatts on the 10th which has an unsigned tavern clock on offer and more importantly a Tompion longcase. Watch this space. For those who like to get their hands dirty Gardiner Houlgate have their two day watch and clock sale at the end of the month. Always nice to get some clock oil on one's hands and to rummage in the debris
Before I finish I said I would return to the "rest". The Antique Furniture Club's Antique Furniture Index now in its 40th year indicates that in 2008 furniture prices were only one percent down on 2007. The peak of the Index was 2002 with falls every year since. This suggests we may have hit bottom. This may be a proxy for general clocks; it may not be. Other anecdotal evidence is that clock restorers whose work has been predominantly for the trade are suffering as the trade does not have the throughput at the moment. Those restorers working for the end customer are faring better; grandma's old clock will always be fixed no matter what the cost.
Wherever you stand it is clear that the buyer has the whip hand for the moment and that buying for stock or for investment is a precarious affair. Good luck, I will be back in March with more.