DEC 2011: AUCTION ROUND UP

AUCTIONEER	DATE 2011	CLOCK	MAKER	£
Bellman	Jan	Banjo	Wm Sterck Bristol	500Hammer
G Houlgate	Feb	Long Teardrop	Charles Harding Ashburton	2000Hammer
Christies	June	Octagonal	Anon	£4375Premium
Christies	July	Lge Teardrop	Anon	N/S
Ebay	July	Octagonal	Anon	N/S £7000ask
Ebay	July	Round Dial	Read Tarporley	N/S £8000ask
Ebay	Aug	Shield	Elliott Plymouth	£3000
G Houlgate	Oct	Round Dial	Webster Salop	£8500Premium
Stair USA	Oct	Teardrop	“Vulliamy”	$1500
Sothebys	Nov	Shield	P Lloyd Bristol	£5625Premium
Tennants	Nov	Round Dial	John Hocker Reading	£6292Premium
USA	Nov	Round Dial, Mahogany	James Howden Edinburgh	$1300Hammer
Bonhams	Dec	Round Dial, Brass Bezel	James Tregent London	£10650Premium
Martin & Pole	Dec	Round Dial	Anon	£4200Hammer

Apologies that the table does not quite fit. To decode, hammer and premium inclusive are the missing words.

No ranting here, just the factual round-up of tavern clock auctions. 2011 was a below par year for tavern clocks appearing at auction, mirroring the malaise in markets in general. In good times, the cream rises to the surface but sellers go into hiding when prices recede. It was already evident towards the back end of 2010 when a couple of top notch tavern clocks produced poor prices at Dreweatts in Donnington. Clocks which had commanded upper teens prices were sold for hammer prices at £10k or below. It is no surprise therefore that the selection on offer in 2011 generally failed to excite. Of the 14 clocks on offer most found buyers. The only sleeper in the bunch is probably the Howden which will brush up well from its sorry state. The Webster has the best chinoiserie on its door. Prices generally reflected the need to un-restore previous ill-thought out but well intentioned interventions. Some "restorations" are irrecoverable. The best prices will always be achieved for untouched clocks and there was very little of that in evidence. See the Tavernicus Forum for more details of those clocks in the table. http://www.tavernicus.co.uk/cms/index.php?option=com_joomlaboard&Itemid=34&func=view&id=108&catid=2 . 

2012 approaches and those vendors sitting on their hands waiting for better times may as well go to sleep for 20 years as the gloom is not going to rise any time soon. Tavernicus will be back in January with news of price indices for antiques in general. Meanwhile, it's time to slow down, open a bottle or a few, find a good book or two and sleep a lot. Oh, a big thank you to those who bought my book, which some will be reading this Christmas!! Enjoy.

NOV 2011: NOTMEGUVONOMICS

It’s been a long summer and autumn without being moved to write, as shouting at the radio seems to have been enough to avoid breaking into a rant but alas no longer. The trigger for returning to the blog was a customer who asked me the imponderable question “… will the tavern clock hold its value…..”. I embarked on an erudite exposition of those clocks which have held their value, namely early clocks, be they lanterns or in particular marquetry longcases with good original movements from say 1685-1710. Also anything by a golden age maker; the best and the rest and all that. The truth is that the question has no answer and could have been about any asset. Will your house hold its value, your classic car, grandad’s war medal, auntie’s pearls…..you complete the sentence. In the past three years, since the recession bit, the only certainties have been Chinese relics for repatriation and the continued recovery of the modern art market, (the latter having bombed before recovery). Oh, I forgot, gold and rhino horn.

It used to be possible to make forecasts and assumptions about many things but we have drifted into the unknown where everything is uncertain, no-one knows what to do and no-one takes the blame for what has happened. Opposition leaders seem to have amnesia that they had declared that boom and bust had been eradicated. The 19^th century satirist Ambrose Beirce wrote in his “Devil’s Dictionary”, (http://www.thedevilsdictionary.com/), that politics is “A strife of interests masquerading as a contest of principles. The conduct of public affairs for private advantage”. Now that we have an alliance of conflicting principles, will we be any better off? Well, back to Bierce, who defined a Conservative thus “A statesman who is enamoured of existing evils, as distinguished from the Liberal, who wishes to replace them with others”. Apparently not, as all we can expect is the daily diet of one side blaming the other and internal strife within the coalition. Perhaps we should take a leaf out the books of those countries that are actually bust or teetering on the edge. Should we hand over to the technocrats? Leaving aside the democratic deficit that unelected governments embody, will the bickering end as the appointees suck up to the tax payers of Northern Europe, the IMF, Brussels and anyone else who will lend them a dime or two. Greece and Italy are supposed to have “governments” that will act in the national interest. Let’s hope so, but the precedents of politicians acting in the national interest are not good; remember duck houses? What about the unelected?  Recently, two members of the House of Lords were jailed for failing to understand the allowances system and beyond comprehension is the case of a Baroness who wrongly claimed over £100000 for allowances to which she was not entitled; she has been reprimanded and barred but will be allowed back to serve the nation. Rules do not apply to me guv! No hope there then. Can we rely on the over-borrowed populace to get us out of trouble. Apparently the nation thinks that Richard Branson, inter alia, could do a better job. Back to Bierce; voting, “The instrument and symbol of a freeman’s power to make a fool of himself and a wreck of his country”. What about the foreigners? China has $3201bn of reserve assets, the UK $57bn, the Eurozone $204bn, USA $49bn and Russia $472bn. These figures ignore any borrowings, hence the UK has $57bn of reserve assets it could use to pay down debt; if only, ..........a significant amount is on deposit at the IMF to bank-roll the Eurozone by the back door. So, not even our own assets can be used and those in the money don’t like cut of our jib.

Back to values. There is hope, as we are not in the bust club that is the Eurozone, our borrowing rate is now below the best of the Eurozone. It is a matter of time and doing the right thing, not the popular thing. For once, politicians need to hold their nerve and not be distracted by noises off from vested interest wishing to protect the bloated state. The revival of the private sector is the only route to the sunny uplands. Borrowing more money to grow the state will put the nation into the bail-out bucket. Japan took a very long time to get out of the mess that they got into and now they have reserve assets of $1129bn and but for their devastating events they had been running a surplus economy. We will get out of this mess and in the meantime what will happen to values? Anyone’s guess, but the precedents are that the stock market is likely to drift and drift and drift. Interest rates in Japan for years were negative in real terms as they are now here. No-one knows which companies, banks, funds and other paper assets will prosper or tank. Physical assets are our only refuge. Buy the best you can and enjoy them. I leave you with Bierce’s definition of a Clock – “A machine of great moral value to man allaying his concern for the future by reminding him what a lot of time remains to him”.

JULY2011: MORE BOYS TOYS

In May 2009 this blog conjured with the idea of buying a WW2 Spitfire, as a couple had been sold, the more expensive going for £1.58m. Well, at this month's Masterpiece Fair at its new "permanent" home in a tent at Chelsea barracks, there is a real Spitfire inside the tent with a price tag of £8m. Some recession, wow. If that's a bit rarified, then try a Ferrari 250 LM built in 1964 with full race provenance at £4.25m. Bit new money for you, then there are numerous "best of the best" opportunities to spend your lottery winnings on (or your bonus or a couple of weeks wages for sporting types).

What's your point? It is this. Items that were, in effect, mass produced and still surviving in small numbers can produce incredible valuations. Later high fashion objects d'art can command £1m+ figures for stuff that is easy to fake. Police estimate that up to 40% of valuable works of art are fake.

So why is it that clocks by some of the greatest makers of all time with perfect pedigree and often unique start to struggle when the numbers get into 6 figures. At this Fair a magnificent month going mulberry cased numbered Tompion longcase with impeccable provenance which has survived since 1693 does not make seven figures. There are thousands of people who can sign a cheque for over £1m for stuff that many of us would not give wall space to but I am reliably advised there are probably only about 20 clock collectors in the world who might consider such sums for their horological toys. Many more for old motor cars. Don't forget Forbes estimates there are over 1200 billionaires worldwide; what's the odd £8m. All the clock specialists have to do is turn one or two very public figures into notable collectors. Get to work!!

Masterpiece had 4 signed, previously undisplayed tavern clocks for sale. Three were offerred by Carter Wright; Jason Cox of London (shield dial), Ralph Glover of Hyde Park (smallest round dial ever seen in highly original condition) and an all black round dial with chinoiserie by J Liddell of Morpeth, all beautiful. Raffetty & Walwyn showed a very handsome white round dial by Quartermaine of Aylesbury. Typical prices in the mid teens to mid twenties. Expensive? Not by the standards of the trophy makers and these clocks are more difficult to come by in the right condition.

Enjoy your summer as Tavernicus takes time out

JUNE 2011: COMPETITION: WHO PAYS

Recently Bonhams have announced that they are to redevelop the back of their Bond Street site at a cost of £30m, and separately, that they are raising their buyer's premium to 25% plus VAT. This is the rate of premium payable on most clocks. The £30m investment is a sign that Bond Street is buoyant, driven by Fine Art if not clocks, and as Bonhams is the only London auctioneer still holding dedicated clock auctions, Tavernicus wishes them success with their investment.

In the buyer's premium announcement it was declared that there was a need to maintain competitiveness with Sothebys and Christies. Fine, but that set me thinking. A tavern clock (see below) sold this week by Christies at South Ken in their Interiors series, had a hammer price of £3500 which becomes, at the new rate, £4550, fully loaded. The question is who pays the difference and who benefits? Buyer, Auctioneer or Seller?? If the winning bidder is a dealer then it is clear that in the price sensitive band of up to £25k the premium is just another cost which has to be included in the margin equation as the premium cannot then be passed on to a retail buyer as a supplement. In the super-price bracket of say £100k then the premium can be lost as the ultimate buyer is acquiring a trophy and what's another few thousand between friends.

So, in the normal world, the buyer's premium must drive the hammer price down as if the premium were zero in our example above then the hammer price would rationally have been £4550, surely. So in effect the seller bears the commissions (buying and selling commisssion combine at about 38%). These are London economics where overheads must be awesome. It might be argued that visiblity in the capital drives up hammer prices but the internet is putting paid to that argument as you can bid from your armchair anywhere in the world and the search portals make for a near perfect market.

So, back to lot 428 at Christies SK on the 21st June. The only clock in the sale, it was offerred as an unsigned 18th Century dial octagonal dial with later parts. Tavernicus viewed the clock, as always (well nearly always), as it seemed very similar to the three known octagonals by Orpheus Sumart of Clerkenwell, one of which is featured in Ch4 of the book "THE TAVERN CLOCK". In Lot 428 the dial and case are near identical to the known examples with some alteration to the removable "door" and base. The offset wound movement is a twin of that on page 39 of my book but for the 5th wheel in the train. There is no hour bridge which is a Sumart feature. The pendulum is forward mounted as with the other examples. This clock was a gift to an official in the 1919 Lord Mayor's Pageant, (brass plaque), and it is likely that all the chinoiserie was redone then. The signature may have been lost then; certainly none is evident under UV light inspection.

The price at under £5k reflects the alterations and absence of signature but it is nonetheless a correct example with honest alterations that is a fine decorative piece. There is little or no doubt that this clock came from the "studio" of Orpheus Sumart.

MAY 2011: SERENDIPITY AND NOSTALGIA

The market for clocks seems to have gone to sleep with very little new or of interest emerging. Certainly, only two tavern clocks have appeared at auction this year. It was therefore serendipitous that I came across the opportunity to sharpen up my research as 16 copies of Millers Antiques Price Guide from 1982-2000 fell into my hands at £1/copy. The Guide has been published since 1979. The years '82-2000 witnessed the 1982-83 and the 1990-93 recessions as well as the stock market crash of 1987.
In some years (but not all), the clock section of the Guide contains a specific commentary on the clock market. In the '84 Guide the following was reported "Where, during 1982, many dealers were reporting falling sales and such depressed prices that some were forced into closure there has been a dramatic turnaround.......buyers...are happily paying from 10 upto 40% more than a year ago". Interestingly, doctors and solicitors were apparently ready buyers of inlaid balloon clocks, though how anyone should know this is a curiosity! By the '85 edition, it was reported that "...antiques market clocks have seen an appreciable escalation in prices. This was particularly noticeable with longcase clocks which suffered from a very flat period for several years". Late 17thC marquetry clocks had by now reached £6000, oh those were the days, and, as ever, quality clocks were pulling away from the ordinary. In the '87 Guide it was reported that "In general terms the clock market is extremely buoyant ...". So much for the stock market crash which wiped out 26.5% of the market value in one month. However, I suspect the Guide runs a year in arrears as it must report on the prior year. There is then a gap in the Guide for annual reports until 1994 when a 4-page review appeared; "Thankfully, the clock market has survived this particular "annus horriblis" (and the two preceding) in remarkably good health." Her Majesty the Queen used this phrase in her address at the Guildhall in November 1992. By 2000 all seemed to be well as Derek Roberts, the author of that year's review, reported that ".. the mahogany longcase with painted dial, particularly with moonphase, has probably increased eight-fold in value in the last 21 years". The 2000 edition was the 21st.

I shall await the next serendipitous moment when the years 2001-2011 fall into my hands at £1/copy but I can report that the ebbs and flows of the value of clocks in that 21 year period have continued into the noughties and beyond with a new facet, that is fashion. The latter has taken centre stage as large clocks have suffered immensely in the IKEA minimalism that is pervasive.

This ramble down memory lane has been of great moment to the TAVERNICUS ARCHIVE as about another dozen previously unrecorded tavern clocks have surfaced in the 16 editions. I also understand rather better that when prices soften as they have then the best clocks go to sleep until the market recovers. If you know when that will be then you are a better man than I am Gunga Din! (Courtesy Rudyard Kipling).

MAR 2011: GROWTH AMID THE TURMOIL

In the last post I reported on the continuing decline in the value of antique furniture based on the Antique Collector's Club Antique Furniture Index. One might despair but this is a small part of the picture as Sothebys have released their worldwide auction sales (2010) including buyers' premium, up by 74%, at $4.8bn. Christies auction sales were also up by 34% at a comparable figure of $5bn. So the top auction houses are in good shape as they go neck and neck pursuing new markets in Asia and with a small but important toe hold in on-line bidding. Christies report that over 20% of their clients are bidding via the Christies Live system. A number of the regional auction houses in the UK are now offering on-line bidding with no charge; try it, it is intoxicating, especially when you get a live video feed of the auctioneer. Try Dreweatts.

So, if furniture is not driving the antiques market what is. The recovery of the Art Market is at the heart of the sales growth but there are other factors. Rich people are getting richer. According to Forbes there are about 1200 billionaires worldwide and the growth is in the newer and emerging economies. Whilst about 400 reside in the USA, the growth is coming from China, India, Latin America, Russia and Asia generally. New money is fuelling the art market. Billionaires and governments are pushing up prices for heritage items making their way home. That was 2010, but what of 2011? USA&Europe are still teetering out of the 2008/9 recession with much sticking plaster in evidence but debt remains an issue in most countries. Fiscal measures known as "Cuts" are mis-titled as in almost all such economies there is no cut in debt, merely a reduction in the annual deficit. Many politicians do not even understand the difference between the deficit and the debt. However, the debt problems have fallen off the media radar for now as biblical challenges have been visited on Australia, New Zealand and now Japan. These are multi-billion $ challenges. Someone has to pay. As if that were not enough, parts of North Africa and the Middle East are going through changes the like of which could not have been imagined even 6 months ago. Oil goes through the roof again.

All this uncertainty means that those with money to deploy or assets to manage have to work out risk profiles by asset class and there is always a flight to quality when there is uncertainty. We have that in spades, so I take the view that quality antiques in virtually all classes will continue to hold attractions for investors. Even if money goes to hell in a bucket, if you own a best in class antique then you can always enjoy it whilst sipping your last glass of Krug. What surprises me is that even a Tompion or a Graham or a Knibb just get into 6 figures. Their work, when original, is as rare and as beautiful as many of the works by artists who command 7 figure sums. Figure it out if you can, but enlightenment is needed.

Closer to home, if you are still with me, there has not been much public activity with tavern clocks as only two new offerings have appeared this year, both auctioned. A much altered round dial signed Wm Sterck was auctioned for £500 hammer and another round dial signed Harding of Ashburton sold for hammer £2000. More interesting activity has taken place with Tavernicus visitors who have shared photos of previously unrecorded tavern clocks in highly original condition. More another time.

FEB 2011: FOLLOW YOUR INSTINCTS

It has been some six months since Tavernicus was moved to write thanks to the distraction of a restoration of a cottage in Derbyshire; at that time the rising crescendo of bleeding hearts pleading for immunity from The Cuts was making life exceedingly dull. Not much has changed. The BBC is still acting in daily conspiracy with special interest groups. However, portentous events in North Africa have finally delivered relief from the daily diatribe.

Meanwhile back in our world, 2011 started with the news from the Antique Collectors' Club that the Antique Furniture Index "AFI" had dropped by 8% in 2010, the largest fall for 40 years. The index is now at the same level as 1990. Grim news for anyone thinking of antiques as an investment. Your house is probably worth 3-4 times more over the same period and the FT250 is up by a similar amount.

Antiques have been displaced by the fashion for the contemporary and inherited goods are no longer coveted in the way they once were. IKEA has much to answer.

However, as with all generalisations, this is not the whole picture as the phenomenon of the "best and the rest " continues. There is still unlimited money about for the special, the rare, the best and objects needing ethnic repatriation. Chinese porcelain is keeping auctioneers up and down the country in brogues and moleskins. Relief then for some.

Clocks seem to have come off their best in recent auctions, having weathered the storms of 2008-10 reasonably well for quality offerings (not true of bog-standard 19thC longcases). Tavernicus is now reporting on auction results for tavern clocks in 2011, (see website forum).

The Tavernicus Archive of 300 tavern clocks was "frozen" in mid-2010 so that the book "The Tavern Clock" could be edited and published. Publication took place in August 2010 and the archive update can now be recommenced; there are about an additional 40 tavern clocks to catalogue.

Within the 40 is the "one that got away". Last year, a small unsigned round dial with a print by John June on the door was sold on Ebay. Tavernicus advised the seller and has since been in touch with the buyer regarding its restoration. It transpired that beneath the top coat of black lacquer the restorer discovered the very clear and unambiguous remnants of the signature, J Wright of Dorking. Probably the finest discovery of the last few years and one suspected by Tavernicus but not acted upon. Follow your instincts!!