In the last post I reported on the continuing decline in the value of antique furniture based on the Antique Collector's Club Antique Furniture Index. One might despair but this is a small part of the picture as Sothebys have released their worldwide auction sales (2010) including buyers' premium, up by 74%, at $4.8bn. Christies auction sales were also up by 34% at a comparable figure of $5bn. So the top auction houses are in good shape as they go neck and neck pursuing new markets in Asia and with a small but important toe hold in on-line bidding. Christies report that over 20% of their clients are bidding via the Christies Live system. A number of the regional auction houses in the UK are now offering on-line bidding with no charge; try it, it is intoxicating, especially when you get a live video feed of the auctioneer. Try Dreweatts.
So, if furniture is not driving the antiques market what is. The recovery of the Art Market is at the heart of the sales growth but there are other factors. Rich people are getting richer. According to Forbes there are about 1200 billionaires worldwide and the growth is in the newer and emerging economies. Whilst about 400 reside in the USA, the growth is coming from China, India, Latin America, Russia and Asia generally. New money is fuelling the art market. Billionaires and governments are pushing up prices for heritage items making their way home. That was 2010, but what of 2011? USA&Europe are still teetering out of the 2008/9 recession with much sticking plaster in evidence but debt remains an issue in most countries. Fiscal measures known as "Cuts" are mis-titled as in almost all such economies there is no cut in debt, merely a reduction in the annual deficit. Many politicians do not even understand the difference between the deficit and the debt. However, the debt problems have fallen off the media radar for now as biblical challenges have been visited on Australia, New Zealand and now Japan. These are multi-billion $ challenges. Someone has to pay. As if that were not enough, parts of North Africa and the Middle East are going through changes the like of which could not have been imagined even 6 months ago. Oil goes through the roof again.
All this uncertainty means that those with money to deploy or assets to manage have to work out risk profiles by asset class and there is always a flight to quality when there is uncertainty. We have that in spades, so I take the view that quality antiques in virtually all classes will continue to hold attractions for investors. Even if money goes to hell in a bucket, if you own a best in class antique then you can always enjoy it whilst sipping your last glass of Krug. What surprises me is that even a Tompion or a Graham or a Knibb just get into 6 figures. Their work, when original, is as rare and as beautiful as many of the works by artists who command 7 figure sums. Figure it out if you can, but enlightenment is needed.
Closer to home, if you are still with me, there has not been much public activity with tavern clocks as only two new offerings have appeared this year, both auctioned. A much altered round dial signed Wm Sterck was auctioned for £500 hammer and another round dial signed Harding of Ashburton sold for hammer £2000. More interesting activity has taken place with Tavernicus visitors who have shared photos of previously unrecorded tavern clocks in highly original condition. More another time.
