DEC 12: MAYAN EXPERTS WRONG

Experts are always wrong. When the recession hit in 2007/8 and Northern Rock hit the buffers the experts said the recession would all be over in 5 years or so. The Olympic year was supposed to be the start of a new era. No new dawn then, and the government has admitted that 2017 may be the beginning of the sunny uplands when Debt as a percentage of GDP will have been stabilised and the Deficit will be acceptable. Politicians have been exposed, as only after the balloon burst did most of them even begin to understand that debt ratios and rating agency ratings actually matter and that even a nation has to live within its means. Ask the Greeks. All the talk has been of cuts and austerity; I wonder how many people realise that national debt is still rising by over £100 billion each year. No politician has levelled with us since 2007 as there is no end to this in the foreseeable future if debt continues to rise at this rate. You may hope for better quality leadership but shouting at the radio will continue to be an imperative and the only consolation.

So how does all this affect us in the world of second hand goods. Not quite sure, but I feel better for the rant. What we do know is that antiques generally continue to mirror the recession although the Annual Pricing Index results do not get published until January. I’ll let you have them as soon as they come out. As with 2011, contemporary art, Chinese & Russian works of art remain strong but one suspects not ridiculously so. Meanwhile, the antiques world continues to change; both Sothebys and Christies have published results showing that their direct sales are growing very strongly. So auctioneers are becoming dealers. The big boys are embracing internet only auctions, thus adapting the ebay format to the antiques world. Virtually any auction of any quality now has a live bidding facility and if you have not tried it believe me it is addictive. However, given buyers premiums are now often at 20% or more then live bidding should be FREE; check as it is not always thus!

In the world of clocks another year of gloom for most categories but for quality bracket clocks, Golden Age makers and early clocks. I do wonder how dealers sitting on old stock bought at old prices are faring. The internet is a mixed blessing for the clock dealer as unlike say furniture where generally there is no individual maker, clocks of any value have a maker’s name and Google can take any enquirer to the auction price which must make buyers wary of the post auction mark ups. The flip side of the internet is that it has enabled transmission of photos to distance buyers easy so virtual selling is a reality. Of course many buyers are not yet internet savvy but they are probably falling off their perch year by year.

Clocks may not have tempted you and I write of boys toys from time to time. The late George Daniels collections of cars and watches sold for many millions enabling a very important educational trust to be established in his name. Collectors needed deep pockets to own a Daniels watch or one of his motor racing classics. No Spitfire this year, but a SAM7 missile could have tempted you or a working Hurricane (not sold). A dealer has a torpedo for sale if you are that way inclined. Or perhaps a set of German turning chisels with ivory handles for a cool £40000.

Tavern clocks have not had a good year. Most of the clocks which appeared at auction were frankly at the bottom end of the quality spectrum varying from rubbish to the mediocre. Another blog will give a full summary of the tavern clocks reaching the market but perhaps three clocks were worthy of consideration to the serious collector, a small mahogany teardrop with a brass dial and bezel, a fairly standard round dial with a winding mechanism like a 30 hour movement and finally the early shield dial by Holland of Coventry which went for a stonking £23000 inc premium on 12/12/12. New dealer stocks have largely been significantly restored examples and unlikely to excite collectors looking for the untouched. Tavernicus did not acquire a clock in 2012 for stock but lives in hope. However, the research continues and since the publication of the “Tavern Clock” in 2010 a further 100 tavern clocks have come to light. As and when both time and inclination synchronise an update to the Appendix of the book will be published.

In ending the year, I am grateful to many correspondents for bringing hitherto unknown clocks to my attention and thereby enabling the growth of the Archive. The website receives interest from many countries of the world. The tavern clock is an English phenomenon, yet followers are to be found in all parts of the English speaking world. To my many followers I thank you for your continuing interest and wish you a merry Christmas and a great new year.

WHAT PRICE A MASTERPIECE??

Now that the summer fairs are over, a moment to reflect. There are three top fairs in June/July. In sequence, Olympia, The Haughton Art Fair opposite the Albert Hall and lastly the so called best of the best, Masterpiece, on the Chelsea Flower Show site. There were clock dealers at Olympia, none at Haughton and 4 at Masterpiece. Without doubt the latter is the leading show with tens of £millions of stuff to suit all tastes but not all wallets. Masterpiece was the only Fair where tavern clocks were on show with prices ranging from high teens to £40k. A very rare red lacquered trunk with a black round dial and carved ears by Richard Laurence of Bath was on the Carlton Smith stand. A beautiful clock with really fine lacquer by a well known Bath maker. Howard Walwyn had two tavern clocks, one by Chappell which featured in the Lantern & Taverns exhibition and another standard round dial by Quartermaine of Aylesbury. The Chappell is an exceptionally rare shield dial with straight cut lower quadrant mouldings and a type of gilt work hardly ever seen on tavern clocks. Carter Wright were showing the miniature mahogany round dial teardrop with brass bezel by John Devis; this is one that got away from me which is featured in the forum on my site. A wonderful sleeper. The Cox shield dial made another appearance. Only the Laurence is a new find for me.

What is crystal clear is that the top of the range Golden Age clocks by Tompion, Knibb or Graham and a few other names are selling like hot cakes at prices well into 6 figures. For practically everything else the number of buyers dwindles. It is pleasing to see that the prices of the trophy clocks are moving up as the best of the horological offering is now pushing and in some cases exceeding £0.5m. Yes this is another league but it does mean that these clocks are starting to compete with other baubles for the attention of the big hitters. At this fair you could buy a Riva launch, a white Rolls the size of a small truck, a 1950’s original Jaguar C-type, a bespoke hand-made motor cycle, the finest wines, an unbelievable array of jewellery but unfortunately no Spitfire this year. Olympia did have a hall table made out of the nose-cone of a spitfire, fully chrome plated, mmm. If you came for serious art work, there was no shortage of recently painted daubs and the finest of old masters and everything in between. It was no problem to spend, say, £10-50k on a piece of art that kindergarten might have produced or on a wide selection of very mediocre older stuff. So a good beautifully made clock with history, craftsmanship, provenance and a maker’s name still performing its function after over 200 years should be attracting the punters. The Golden Age clocks are as rare as most of the works of art here and elsewhere but they do not reach the prices that one might imagine; they should be priced in the millions based upon rarity and quality. Antiques and works of art selling at prices in the £millions are for the investment market. Investors simply have yet to discover horology which is primarily a collectors’ market.

Does any of this matter?? Only if the trickle down factor is a reality. Markets are normally pyramid shaped with the best at the top, scarce and expensive with a structure all the way down to jumble. The decline in the value of clocks (and antiques in general) over the last ten years means that we do not have a structured market with the trickle down of value. We have the best and the rest with no connection between the two. This disconnection is serious as it means that restoration costs often exceed the value of clocks and over time the mid to lower end will not survive the rigours of use. It is to be hoped that what comes around goes around and that either investors wake up to the middle ground or that fashion solves the problem. We have waited ten years already, don’t hold your breath.

MAY 2012: FAIR'S FAIR????

The first premium fair of 2012 opened in Chelsea at the Duke of York barracks, yes the BADA FAIR. An air of professional perfection pervaded the tent on the lawn as once inside the fit out was pure luxury. The fair took place in the week of the third budget from the coalition who are still pursuing Plan A. It is now over four years since Northern Rock sought shelter from the Bank of England and Tavernicus has closed its fifth year. Starting a new small business in the eye of a recession is not for the feint hearted and it has been an interesting journey.

Since the recession hit we have seen major banks fail, two clearing banks in the UK nationalised, another rescued from insolvency, a change of government, the eurozone in meltdown, Eire rescued, Greece bailed out, tax payers everywhere being milked and the public sector everywhere is in retreat. The days of governments conning their electorates with debt fuelled economies are over. Hopefully everyone now knows the difference between debt and deficit and that cuts are not reducing the debt. UK government debt is still growing at over £140bn per annum.

After 5 years of financial misery all political parties have embraced the new mantra that the “rich must pay more”. Not only is it now undesirable to be a banker, a hedge fund manager (now an endangered species), an estate agent, a phone tapper, a non-dom, a journalist, a political donor and a host of other hate–figures, now the angst is being turned on anyone who is “rich”. Yes, if you have money they are coming after you even if you acquired it fairly and squarely. In this new world, if you have more you must pay more. There is a flaw in this populist logic; politicians should learn to understand the normal distribution curve. There simply are not enough UK anchored rich people to tax and the people at the other end of the distribution curve don’t have any money to give. So the truth is that the new tax regime means more and more of us will be defined as rich so that more tax can be taken from the middle of the curve. The granny tax is but one example of this but in fact the lowering of the 40% band will bring hundreds of thousands into the rich tax raid. If you did not know it you have been redefined as rich.

It might have been expected that in this Robin Hood world that the rich would be leaving us in droves and that Antique Fairs had gone off shore with the money. Not a bit of it. The Grosvenor House Fair may have died for property reasons but the London Fairs scene is now more extensive and more deluxe than ever. Money is actually flooding into London, witness the property prices in Chelsea and Kensington which are higher than ever. The Art Market fully recovered its initial wobble and the Chinese have kept the major auction houses in lunches. Berlusconi, before his downfall, remarked he did not know what the problem was, restaurants are full!! The truly rich are falling over each other to have a base in London and even they must pay their stamp duty.

Non-EU exports of antiques and fine art in 2011 grew slightly by 2.1% to £3.15bn and imports by 47.6% to £3.48bn. EU exports were well down at -50.7% but imports were up by nearly 10%. These are big numbers for what is mostly a cottage industry with a small number of big players.

It is the big players who are enjoying the business at the top end. TEFAF at Maastricht is the world’s top fair. If you have a lottery win to spend this is the place. 265 exhibitors and 72000 visitors. Forget the merchandise, the visitors had 515 cooks and 2300 waiters at their beck and call serving 46000 glasses of champagne/wine, 75000 cups of coffee, 50000 sandwiches and yes 11000 oysters, yuk! 160 private planes.

The consequence of all this is that the very best of any market you care to think of is in rude health as the really rich people enjoy their wealth whereas the newly defined merely ordinary rich people are finding it harder and harder to pay for the state sector in which they are not full participants.

So visitors to the BADA Fair enjoyed no less than 5 premium clock dealers and it was not difficult to part with £50k or more for a top-end piece and to be reasonably assured of maintaining value. The problem is that in the sub-£10k segment it remains volatile with prices drifting for some categories now for 10 years or so. The rules for investing are buy the best, preferably by a premium maker and originality/under-restoration are absolutely key. Provenance helps. Take advice and buy what you know. One piece of good news: at least our Chancellor left the capital gains tax exemption on chattels (clocks) alone so keep buying. Next blog will feature tavern clocks auctioned in 2012, not exciting I am afraid.                                                         

JAN 2012: GOVERNMENTIUM, INDICES AND TOYS

Since the last full blog on Notmeguvanomics an Irish follower has sent me a copy of Ambrose Bierce’s “Devil’s Dictionary”. Oh what joy! Two words—politician and experience. The former, “An eel in the fundamental mud upon which the super-structure of organised society is reared…” and the latter, “The wisdom that enables us to recognise as an undesirable old acquaintance the folly that we have already embraced”. Well, politicians all over Europe are still in the mud and are if anything in deeper as the Euro crisis gets worse. Regrettably, it is still everyone else’s fault and “experience” has done little to wake up the politicians who to a man say that the deficit must be cut but squirm in the mud when it comes to action. Meanwhile the debt has grown to £1trillion. Cuts? What cuts?

On a lighter note, I have written in the past about boy’s toys and the phenomenal price of an air worthy spitfire last known to be £8m. Well, a new category of aircraft has reached the attention of collectors and you do not need to be an oligarch to buy one. Christies have just sold a SAM missile for £7000. Mind you, at 19ft long you would need some trophy cupboard to display the deactivated Soviet SA-6. Geeks will be figuring out how to fit new blue touch paper to the tail fins, best not go there.

Nearer to home, as promised, I am able to give you up to date news on the state of the furniture market in 2011, courtesy of the Antique Collectors’ Club’s Annual Furniture Index recently featured in the Antiques Trade Gazette. More bad news. A further fall of 2% with the consequence that the index is back to its 1995 level. There are a number of sub-indices but they nearly all fell apart from Walnut which rose by 5%. The separate Victorian and Edwardian index fell 11% and is now at its 1988 level. No wonder antique shops are disappearing fast. Clocks are not measured in these indices but the picture would not be dramatically different. The message remains that middling run of the mill objects are of little interest. Only very high quality, rare or specialist interest objects are sustaining the sector. If the Chinese lose interest in repatriation of their heritage then the regional auction business would collapse.  

The only tavern clock to be auctioned in January was in the USA; Bonhams sold a curious round dial which seemed to have a distant relationship with its lacquered trunk for $5000 inc premium, bearing the name Dwerrihouse. Not much activity otherwise and therefore time to take a break on the slopes now that snow has arrived in the alps. Next report may therefore come from San Cassiano in Italy. Davos, who needs it!!

Finally, a new dictionary discovery in the Urban Dictionary; just Google the word GOVERNMENTIUM. Enjoy!