DEC 13: MUSINGS

Almost at the turn of the year which seems to have had a speed of its own, one can but wonder where it went. Conditions appear to have calmed somewhat as markets have settled in to a form of somnambulance. After almost six years of so called adversity and even more mythical cuts most people have resigned themselves to the long term nature of getting out of a deep, almost black hole. Japan spent more than 20 years getting out of their banking crisis. We have become so inured of crisis news that the nation has taken in its stride the news that the COOP Bank has had to be rescued. Not a single branch was mobbed by savers wanting their money. Contrast that with the queues of angry savers outside Northern Rock branches in 2008!

The public's fatalistic reaction to bad news has had some peculiar effects on the media. The BBC in the form of its Radio Four channel has dropped all pretensions that its output is aimed at intelligent people. It has joined the entertainment industry. On the Today Programme which used to be a news programme, not a day passes without celebrity guff being featured. Even Newsnight is not worth a candle any more. It is not all bad, there is Ed Reardon's Week to look forward to.

As far as the antiques world is concerned, a pretty dull period. The annual price index comes out in January and I imagine we will see sideways drift with a continuation of the best pulling away from the rest. Certainly if you have Knibb, Tompion, Graham, East, Vulliamy et al in your collection you can feel justifiably smug. If you don't have such a jewel then the prices are running away with themselves. That said, the Tompion table clock, numbered 171, recently offered at auction in London did not quite reach its lower estimate of £200,000, selling for £195K including premium, significant nonetheless.

On a seriously bright note it was great to see the advent of another quality horological dealer opening in London in Kensington Church Street; congratulations to Howard Walwyn. Collectors now have the choice of the finest English clocks in one street, reinforcing London as the home of horology.

After a very lacklustre 2012 for tavern clocks, with only one great clock appearing at auction, 2013 has not impressed. In December 2012 the Gabril Holland of Coventry early shield dial was sold by Bonhams, the best tavern clock of that year. Only one tavern clock caught my attention in 2013, a white round dial with a mahogany trunk by Louis Recordon with great provenance. Watch the Tavernicus website for pictures and details of the provenance in early 2014. Something to brighten up the dull alcohol free, carbohydrate free miserable days of January.

Sellers have stayed away from the auction rooms as only 7 signed tavern clocks appeared at auction in 2013 with most prices down in the £5-6k range with the two better examples topping £10k. The auction market does not respond well to restored tavern clocks whereas unrestored untouched original and complete examples get the trade in a lather. Not much lather in 2013.

So what does 2014 hold. Unrelenting electioneering getting worse as every month passes as 2015 hoves into view. Expect massive political fall out as Romanians and Bulgarians make their way to London. Politicians on the left, suffering from amnesia, will be facing both ways whilst those claiming conservative roots will be nonplussed by the unstoppable rise of the eurosceptics. Expect total panic as the Scots decide to leave the Union in September. There will be more bad news on IDS's new computer system for universal credit limping to the starting grid. These distractions will be the perfect backdrop for the economy to begin to heal itself with politicians running around in diminishing circles whilst business gets on with business. The next sacred cow to be exposed will be the charity/ third sector which will deservedly join the roll of honour comprising politicians, the honours system, banks, NHS, education, tax avoidance by global brands, failed Regulation etc etc.

With interest rates set to remain at miserable levels and the stock market drifting nowhere, money is becoming a devalued asset class by the year. There is no remedy for this unless you have the wisdom of Croesus which most mortals do not. Hence you might consider spending it on a non taxable chattel in the form a great English clock by a great maker. Properly maintained it will see you out, be an endless friend and be witness to all your secrets for future generations to ponder upon. Merry Christmas and best wishes for the year to come. Look out for a teardrop by Jos Barber in February and for a real treat click on the link below.

http://youtu.be/FUa7oBsSDk8

OCT 2013: INVESTING IN CLOCKS: AN OXYMORON???

IN

Just to amuse myself I obtained a copy of a book published in 1967 bearing the title “Investing in Clocks & Watches” by PW Cumhail. With nearly half a century having passed I expected some hilarious gaffs given what has happened to values of some classes of horological chattels. First, the book was purchased for 62p on ABEBOOKS, the best site for buying out of print books. Originally retailed in old money at 50 shillings, the wisdom in the book has clearly left investors cold as collectors have not made this a must have and much searched after tome.

Eagerly looking for gaffs I highlighted some passages which are repeated below:-

Collecting provides a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, but this should be thought of as a fringe benefit..

The main aim behind any kind of collection should never be profit.

All things being equal Thomas Tompion’s clocks will fetch the highest prices….it is rare for even a suspect clock to fetch less than £750, a good one can easily go to 20 times that price.

Clocks …should be cleaned and oiled once every five years. People may say that they have had a clock for 40 years and it has never needed cleaning… When it eventually makes an expensive noise they will probably cry bloody murder if the repair estimate is over £5.

Mostly the horological market has been steadily rising….

The price of Knibb clocks has been rising steadily since the publication of R A Lee’s book…at over £5500 only the rich…..

The difficulty today is not always one of separating the wholly true from the wholly false but deciding how much may be original.

There are perhaps 12 horological experts in the world..

It is difficult to forecast the future of the long-case clock. There is no reason to think there will be any drop in the prices of really good specimens….

If the prospect of successful horological investment looks black, it is a mistaken impression. It has never been so good.

Mr Cumhail only really got it wrong in repeating the famous phrase uttered by Conservative Prime Minister Harold Macmillan in 1957 that we had never had it so good.

 

 

JULY 2013 TRANSPARENCY PROVENANCE MASTERPIECE

It is the season of summer antique fairs what with Olympia, The Masterpiece Fair and  Master Paintings Week. Increasingly an interest in early paintings is developing and as with all new interests there is a research phase where learning is the main fascination. My current bedside reading, sent to me by a dear Irish friend, is The Word Museum by Jeffrey Kacirk. Such a pity that The Most Remarkable English Words Ever Forgotten should have come from America!

Happenstance then that I should discover within The Word Museum a word originally defined in the Slang Dictionary by JC Hotten, published in 1887. The word is screever. A screever is an art impostor and quote “there are impostors of this kind in higher walks of art”.

Transparency is the theme of our age as the internet prevents those who would rule from doing so with veils of secrecy. Whistle blowers are coming out of the woodwork everywhere and whilst virtually all such individuals get crushed by their revelations the incremental effect is that more and more veils fall away. The self serving activities of western governments, politicians, businessmen, tax consultants, charity brokers, the foreign aid industry, the police, the media and virtually any institution are revealed on a daily basis. Notwithstanding the new world of transparency the spin industry goes on relentlessly, oblivious to the new paradigm. Just one small example out in the last few days; in 2015, election year, there will be £11bn of additional cuts. Not unreasonable to believe less money would be spent; wrong. In fact in this age of “cuts”, government spending during this parliament will have risen in each year and debt will be some £500bn higher than at the start. This canard is repeated in virtually all western economies and the victims are not the perpetrators but the thrifty with savings and no debt. Low interest rates are penalising the thrifty. Is this a conspiracy of western voodoo economics as normally when money is printed (QE) it leads to high inflation, high interest rates and weak currencies. High interest rates would now finish off most of the weaker brethren in the Eurozone. Would a whistle blower please step forward and explain what is going on….

Meanwhile, back to Masterpiece and masterpieces. The former is the outstanding showcase of the best of the old and new. If you need to spend a shed load of money the Chelsea embankment is the summertime place to spend it. In addition to the finest array of antiques, antiquities, fine art etc you might want to pick up a beautifully restored 1950’s Riva launch for a mere 375000 euro. A similar price would get you a fully restored E-type. Want something new then a Maserati might be your thing. How about a piano within a cast bronze dining table for £400000, you had to be there to understand. Too lazy or confused to figure it out then a Concierge Service might be your thing or maybe you could just sip a glass of Ruinart and while away the time in the most opulent tent in the land.

The magnet for me is the display of tavern clocks. This year the five top clock dealers were out in force with splendid displays and three dealers have tavern clocks. It would be indiscreet to mention specific prices but the range is c.£20-45k. The makers for the record are Holland, Lord, Chappell, Penny and Vulliamy, all top notch and looking magnificent. Also evident is the continuing rise of prices of the Golden Age makers as the best pull away from the rest.

Yes, masterpieces and provenance. A steep learning curve of discovery as to how attributions in the art world are made. I hope not meet a screever in the meantime, fortunately transparency is the theme of our age.

MAR 13: ANNUAL INDEX HEADS SOUTH

The world seems to be in flux; AAA rating gone, Italians vote for a comedian with a record of manslaughter and UKIP beat the conservatives in Eastleigh. The fiscal cliff in the USA is not averted and politicians in the west are just paralysed with the debt legacy binge which they have no courage to deal with lest they end up losing to a comedian.

Some things however do not seem to change. The annual survey of antiques published by the Antiques Collectors Club, known as the Antique Furniture Index, initiated in 1968, has continued to show falls in values. The rot set in in 2002 when the index peaked. Every year since has shown a decline and the 2012 result, (-3%), is now at the index level of the mid 90’s. In plain English, practically any antique furniture purchased after 1995 is now worth less than its purchase price.

Of course the Index does not apply to all antiques and clocks are not specifically included. As with all averages there will be exceptions and there will always be sub-categories which buck the trend. Golden Age clockmakers would certainly be an exception. Reading the few specialist clock auction catalogues, one can easily become maudlin as longcase clocks appear to be at their nadir with many estimates for run of the mill lots at around £500. However museum pieces, particularly those with a Chinese connection continue to surprise.

In the tavern clock world practically every lot auctioned in 2012 failed to excite as the quality just was not there. The spectacular and singular exception was the early shield dial auctioned by Bonhams in December. Made by Gabril Holland in around 1740 this was an unrestored example which the trade loves. Not without its faults, but a very desirable example, it was sold for a stonking £23000, including commission. Compare that with the more typical auction prices of £3000-5000 and it is clear that averages never tell the entire story. There is no substitute for specialist knowledge. For more information on tavern clocks auctioned in 2012 go to www.tavernicus.co.uk and follow the Forum link to auctions; over 30000 hits to date.

It is to be hoped that the Holland result will “encourager les autres”; poor auction results are self-perpetuating as the quality lots go to sleep with sellers sitting on their hands until better times. Some people have been sat on their hands for ten years as values continue to fall. Hopefully a few great lots will now emerge to excite us, failing which we can continue to follow the unrelenting scenarios going on all around us which would be comic if they were not so tragic.