Wednesday 12 February 2014

FEB 14: FORM OR SUBSTANCE: THE PARADOX



Davos, Jay Rayner, Russell Brand, hybrid vehicles, wind farms, curling, anyone claiming   to be an expert, sous vide, special advisors, chuggers, businesses masquerading as charities etc.. What are they for; no idea. Glad we got that out of the way. They all have form but what about substance?

The Antique Furniture Index, AFI, has both form and substance as it has been measuring the value of antique furniture since 1968 and is the best guide to what is happening in the trade; or is it?
Just published in the Antique Collectors’ Club magazine, the AFI reveals another awful year for the furniture categories it measures. The indicators in 2012 suggested the worst may be over but in 2013 all seven categories declined in value with the average fall being 6%. The result is that the index is now at the same level as the late 1980’s.
What is going on? 2013 was a record year for Christies with turnover up by 16% at £4.5bn. Sothebys are having a positive year with turnover up by 5% in 9 months. Both houses are seeing major growth in private sales which were $1bn for Sothebys in the 9 months. Poachers and game keepers under the same roof! Contemporary and modern art continue to drive sales as does Asia and new money generally. The big boys are immune to what used to drive the antique business. In fact the big two are more or less out of the traditional business as they close departments and restrict their minimum lot values, together with ever rising buyers’ premiums. 

It might be expected that the regional auction trade would be dying based on the AFI; not a bit of it. The main players including Woolley & Wallis,  Dreweatts, Tennants, Fellows and Sworders to name a few all report healthy rises in sales. These companies benefit to some extent by the withdrawal of the big boys from their turf in favour of mega ticket items. Internet live bidding must be a saviour.

The lower end of the trade must be in terminal decline as the best lots evade them and ebay diverts lots to private sales.

So who is really affected by the implications of the AFI. The answer must be nearly all of us as the prized possessions handed down over the generations reach negligible value. Collections may no longer justify restoration other than for sentimental reasons.

The substance of the AFI is not what it tells us but what it does not. As to the others in my list …………


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