What is going on? Just about
everything. A complex situation in the Middle East, a potential pandemic in
Africa making its way to our shores, a property bubble emerging in China which
is potentially a house of cards, a deflating property bubble in London, Eastern
European tensions, North African tensions, social media depriving governments
of control measures, traditional news channels becoming irrelevant, the
political structure of the United Kingdom in flux…..etc.
With this background which is a
kind of Armageddon it has been business as usual here in Blighty. Whoops, are
we allowed to say Blighty any longer after the Scots nearly cut themselves
adrift. I had predicted in an earlier missive that the Scots would jump ship
and it was closer than most expected and the panic was manifest resulting in
many long grass promises. Now the phoney war has broken out between the parties
as they limber up for the election next year, all wondering how to deal with
borrowings which continue to rise by £100bn+ p.a..
Markets were taking little notice,
drifting within their recent ranges. The growth rate in the UK is trumpeted as
the best of the developed economies at 2.7% expected for this year. The pound
against the Euro and the US $ is at high rates. Is this the calm before the
storm or is the trend our friend? Well, markets seemed to wake up overnight and
suddenly there is a run for the hills. In a world where concentration spans are
down to 3 minutes and Radio 4’s Today Programme has become a chat show, where
can you get good analysis. No hope really, as no-one can accurately predict
where we are headed in this maelstrom. I can only recommend you discover Radio
4 Extra where you will be able to bury your head in the finest repeats of a simpler
pre-pc world---- Tony Hancock, Spike Milligan, Round the Horne etc.. Brilliant!!
In the art and antiques world
things are buzzing; possibly a consequence of the devaluation of money and the
lack of trust in the old norms. Things are in. Why else would Stanley Gibbons
pay £8.6m for the dealer Mallet which two years ago was deeply in the red.
Stanley Gibbons now owns Dreweatts, Bloomsbury, Baldwin’s and Apex. Someone
thinks the market just beneath the top two auctioneers has a good future or at
least that auctioneering in all its forms is a money spinner. Bonhams has
invested millions in its Bond Street venue. And what do you make of the latest
development from Christie’s? Having increased “buyer’s” premiums to record
levels, a misnomer as there must be a consequential depression of the hammer
price effectively borne by the seller, Christie’s have announced what amounts
to a success fee to the seller. Seller’s commission is between 10-15% on lots
up to £60k, and somewhere between 2-8% above that and once the lot price goes
stratospheric there is no commission. Of course it is an illusion as the hammer
price takes the buyer’s commission into account. However, now sellers will pay
an extra 2% fee if the lot achieves its upper estimate, a success fee based upon
the auctioneers’ view of the estimate. Could this lead to estimates dropping?
Interesting. That is not all, in the cyberworld, Paypal is splitting from Ebay
and online only auctions proliferate even amongst the top houses. Buying things
unseen has become normal. The bricks and mortar auction houses’ days must be
numbered just like supermarkets. Change change change everywhere.
A pretty dull year for tavern
clocks as there has been only one special clock auctioned and another which
would have provided some excitement was withdrawn after a public uproar at its
removal from the hotel in which it had hung for as long as drinkers could
remember. In this lull, Tavernicus is busy updating the book “The Tavern Clock”
as change is in the air.
Meanwhile more news for Spitfire
lovers, (reported here from time to time). These machines are now over 70 years
old, but for the man who has everything including a PPL and a huge wodge you
can pick one up that needs work for about £2-3m or indeed have a completely new
airframe made at Duxford. A 27 litre Rolls Royce Merlin engine will set you
back £170,000 and every 200 hours another £120,000. Oh and there is fuel at up
to 90 gallons per hour. Bless!
