By popular request, Tavernicus
has come out of writer’s block as so much is going on that silence is no longer
possible. I was recently asked why I had not written a blog for so long. My
answer was I have been too angry. I imagine that is how millions are feeling as
about half of the western world is on the wrong side of the argument, dependent
entirely on your point of view.
Former top man, Michael Gove,
made one wise comment before self-implosion when he said “I think people in
this country have had enough of experts”.
I am not sure why he limited his sentiment to this country.
I have expressed similar
sentiments on experts in earlier blogs in so far as “experts” are invariably
wrong so let me say I am not one and these words are nothing more than musings
which occasionally turn into a rant.
Enough has been written about
Brexit and there is little point in adding to the huge pile of rubbish already
in the public domain other than to say that the dire predictions have almost
all been wrong with the exception of the significant devaluation of the pound
against the euro and the dollar. No doubt you will have read the views of
experts that this is both a good and a bad thing. Go figure!
Now we have the latest
development, where once again the experts and pundits were wrong, Donald J
Trump as President Elect, which presumably the voters in the USA thought was
the least worst candidate, (based on their electoral system). Now politicians
in the UK and the EU are having to choke on their words. It is wonderful to
watch these clever people standing on their heads. No doubt we are all left
wondering how is that a country with 300 million people which claims to lead
the free world produces two duffers as the best they can muster.
Underlying the events in the USA,
in the UK and in the EU is the relative decline of the west versus the
emergence of the east which has led to governments of all persuasions to run
deficit economies for a very long time so as to create a fiction that all is well.
Even before the balloon went up in 2008/9 western governments were, to a man,
spending well over their tax receipts and making up the difference by selling
government bonds. The buyers of these bonds were domestic and foreign financial
institutions and when the recession broke the house of cards came down. Then it
got worse; taking the UK as just one example the UK government has borrowed a
further £500 billion on top of over £1 trillion in 2008. National debt is now
£1.776 trillion and growing by over £5000 per second.
The Donald inherits national debt
of $19.8 trillion. Under Trumpanomics, he is going to reduce taxes by $1.4
trillion and spend on infrastructure to the tune of $600 billion. Clearly the
king of the deal does not do math, (US spelling). Don’t even mention the
alchemy of Quantitative Easing which has only made matters worse, or better, no
one knows.
After a long period of slumber
the worm is turning and Disruptors are on the march. Assange, Snowden, Grillo, Marine Le
Pen, Geert Wilders, Farage and now Trump. Disrupters are the phenomenon of
the age and in this interconnected electronic world the elites are struggling
to cope with the rise of the Disrupters because majorities are emerging who
want the elites turfed out. This does not augur well as the alternatives do not
have answers to the rise of the emergent economies, technological advances and
uncontrolled migration. The old norms are fragmenting as pollsters cannot rely
on their algorithms as voting no longer falls neatly within social class,
education or age. Pollsters pack up and shut up please.
I offer no comfort except to say if you still
have money earning the square root of nothing in a deposit account go out and
spend it on something that makes you smile. Be profligate, everyone else has
been, and you will be helping as dead money in deposit accounts will not drive
the economy in these difficult times. Oh and by the way, the price of clocks
has probably reached the floor although you might ask an expert before diving
in.
One final thought. I have written on occasion
of a wonderful free website, wordsmith.org. The USA is now possibly entering a
period of KAKISTOCRACY. Look it up,
particularly the origin of the word.
If you have been, thanks for reading.
Hmm. Except, you are an expert - in Tavern Clocks. You can spot a fake, a marriage, and when something is not quite 'right'. But, of course, that doesnt mean you cant make a mistake - just that you have so many more years of experience to draw on - so that, when I want to buy such a clock I come to you.
ReplyDeleteIn the same way, financial experts have years of experience as well. They are aware of complexities and connections that an outsider simply cannot know. But that does not mean they, too, cant make mistakes. In fact, one could argue, that that capacity to make mistakes is key to their role, since it suggests they are trying to go beyond simply stating the standard and most obvious interpretations, to try and see things from a different perspective.
Now, I loathed Michael Gove for many things. But his so-called 'anti-expert' cheap jive, to garnish popular support, is perhaps the worst thing he did. We need experts. They need to be modest and realistic in what they can provide, of course. But to simply dismiss them is a madness. It would be like me spending £10k on ebay for a clock without consulting someone like you.
Simon
Simon, thank you for taking the trouble to make a comment.
ReplyDeleteMy contention is that there are no experts. In my case I am knowledgeable but fallible. The media presents commentators as experts, but history is littered with the wisdom of experts turning to dust. Like you, I have no time for Gove, but his assertion that we have had enough of experts will be his worthy epitaph as he is now toast.