OCT 2010-RISING CRESCENDO OF BLEEDING HEARTS

What strange times we live in. It seems impossible to concentrate on the normal, whatever your profession. Distraction after distraction. Every day starts with radio four in the Tavernicus household, and has done for over 30 years, but in the run up to the announcement of the cuts for weeks now we have suffered the daily parade of bleeding heart special interest pleaders, who give out the mantra "of course we understand that there is a need for cuts, BUT NOT ME GUV". Well ,when you add up all the pleaders, there cannot possibly be any cuts, can there??

Wake-up, the debt is at £1trillion already and even after the cuts it will be about £1.25trillion by the end of this parliament. Yes, no reduction in debt; this is a long term rescue. The bank bail out and the recession only account for about a quarter of the problem, the rest is thanks to the munificence of the leaders of the time.

I feel better for that, but, do not despair there is still money around as it does not evaporate. The money that the government does not spend (actually not borrow) means that it can be used by others, hopefully to create the wealth that is badly needed. However, Britain needs to be seen as an attractive place otherwise funds will be in flight. Better to embrace than to fight the inevitable.

Money is still about. Anything Chinese is selling for top sterling. Stumble on a Roman bronze battle mask (found in a field) and £2m pops out. Salvage fireplaces with baronial provenance can turn into £.5m; total haul from the Chatsworth House boot sale £6.5m. And yet there are some signs that trouble is ahead. The 2nd LAPADA fair in Berkeley Square, which last year filled the trade columns, seems to have passed with barely a murmur. Certainly it seemed muted on the day I attended, even if beautifully formed.

Tavern clocks have appeared at auction of late but the shine has come off the prices that might have been achieved two years ago. Blockbusting clocks seem to be thin on the ground. A small number of previously unrecorded examples continue to come to light; Thomas Fardon, John Gill, John Hallifax to name but a few. An interesting unrestored small round dial, unsigned, with the beautiful print of Darby & Joan on the door sold in the USA for about $3500; further evidence that clocks without a signature are unloved. The Wright of Dorking white round dial in restored condition with the same print on the door will set you back a great deal more, (featured in my book "The Tavern Clock").

Not long to wait now (October 20), we need the dust to settle so that we can judge the market direction. That could take a while but the bleeding hearts will be out in force and fighting for air time. Could be time for radio two.

SEPT 2010--CALM BEFORE THE STORM????

After the summer recess Tavernicus is back. In pensive mood as no doubt the whole country is whilst we await the news of the "cuts". One wonders whether this is having any affect on our market? The summer fairs season had winners and losers; June was jam-packed with the upmarket fairs and the new Masterpiece at Chelsea barracks lived up to its name whereas Olympia was another story. Certainly these fairs are mounted to an International specification with decor and fittings which would grace any deluxe hotel. There are already signs that the stand costs at these fairs are so expensive that some dealers are throwing in the towel; on the other hand optimists are born every day. September hosts the second LAPADA fair in Berkeley Square and it will be a delight with 6 massive plane trees somehow enclosed within the tent; possibly the best artefacts on display?

The summer witnessed only one tavern clock at auction by Lacey of Bristol; catalogued as a "remnant", the auctioneer described it as in barn condition. Sold for about £3500. September started with a bang with 3 shield dials being auctioned already. Dreweatts had two, one in well restored condition by Lee of Cookham went for just under £10k, inc commission. The other possibly by Jason Cox failed to raise a single bid, the estimate being £6-8K. Bonhams Oxford sold a very distressed but original shield dial by a Barnsley maker for hammer £3400. So, the restoration has to be good to perfect or the clock must be untouched. In the middle, no-one is interested.

The book "The Tavern Clock" was launched in mid July and it is selling reasonably well. A limited edition of 500, all numbered. Getting this book to market has been a long haul and many were involved in its development. If interested go to http://www.tavernicus.co.uk/ . The book is already producing a wealth of new information regarding previously unrecorded tavern clocks; keep them coming.

Over the autumn season the blog will appear more often as we go into the unknown with a political alliance the like of which we have not seen before. The economy is in a phoney situation with little clarity ahead. Uncertainty is not good for any market.

MAY 2010 - SMASH & GRAB JUNE 22nd

The emergency budget will be on June 22nd. There is speculation about the many methods by which the new coalition will relieve us of our money which is already now being taxed by up to 50%. It is rumoured that Capital Gains Tax will be equalised with income tax rates. It will be important to look at the small print if this happens, as currently there is no CGT on clocks as they are classed as machinery, i.e. a wasting asset. The HMRC interpretation is repeated below:-

"Wasting assets: clocks and watches. Antique clocks and watches, such as `Tompion' clocks, are regarded as machinery for Capital Gains Tax purposes. As such, they are deemed to have a predictable life which does not exceed fifty years and are treated as wasting assets. A disposal of such an asset will only give rise to a chargeable gain if it had been used for business purposes and Capital Allowances were, or could have been, claimed."

Let us hope that the Treasury will be distracted by the recent departure of the Chief Secretary to notice this important exemption and that it will continue.

May is almost over and there was only one tavern clock auctioned in the month; a repainted shield dial with a electric movement was sold in the USA for $4500. The case looked original but not much else so a high price in reality. Signed Abraham Glascock, Epping. In truth all eyes are on June as there are at least three big fairs in London where top quality clocks will be on offer.

The Tavernicus site has two new offerings; Henry Lane of Bristol and Orpheus Sumart of Clerkenwell. Have a look.

APRIL 2010: BEWARE MORAL HAZARD

The Governor of the Bank of England has said that banks should not be rescued from moral hazard. Notwithstanding this fundamental principle, the UK government did just that in the bail-out. Now the leaders behind the Euro-project, Germany & France, find themselves doing the same thing to avert the collapse of the Euro as the Greek political elite have taken their country to the brink by financing a massively bloated state sector with other people's money, "OPM".

Here in the UK the government needs OPM to the tune this year of £165billion. But for the willingness of Others to provide the government with this sum the UK would have to call in the administrators. That is what has happened in Greece. Could it happen here? Surely not?

Tavernicus is not a prophet of doom, merely an observer who spent his professional life dealing with money and big sums. However, the sums involved here are so large that most people cannot get their minds around them. Just how much money is one thousand billion pounds? This unimaginable sum is how much our government owes. That is the total of OPM. Every one percent interest costs £10billion. The Greek borrowing rate in their crisis has gone from about 2% to 15%-- work it out!!

So what does this mean to the clock world?? Tavernicus doesn't have a crystal ball and can only say that if the UK gets entangled in the fall-out from the Greek tragedy then paper assets could suffer irrepairably. Nothing is safe and electronic assets, such as bank balances, pensions, stocks & bonds are all at risk. Why pensions? Pension funds are large providers of OPM to governments. Physical assets will not be immune but they will still be there after the storm.

So Tavernicus is taking his own advice and getting out of money and into physical things. Antiques generally are at a seven year low and many antiques are cheaper now than ten years ago. Fashion is part of the reason but well selected antiques have held their own.

During April there were two tavern clocks on offer, one genuine and one much altered. The former, by Quartermaine of Aylesbury, went for just over £8k and will be a fine clock when restored. The latter price has not been posted yet. The Wm Gass referred to in the last blog has now been seen and a very fine black round dial it is.

So as the election approaches there are few certainties other than if you live off the state, be afraid, and if you have money, the new government will be seeking to relieve you of it.

MARCH 2010: LIVERPOOL CAUTION

A fairly uneventful month but for the appearance on internet sale sites of the same clock by Wyke & Green of Liverpool being sold in places as varied as North London, Aberdeen and even in Chennai in India. All the pictures were lifted from Ebay when this clock sold last year. The actual clock has been well restored and hangs in the home of its current owner and is not for sale. So if you see the clock and are tempted; caveat emptor.

Cheffins auctioned a round dial tavern clock for just over £3k inc. commission. Signed by that well known maker, tempus fugit, and in distressed condition it is a rarity as it has lead cast figures attached to the door, mmmmm.

Otherwise, an ebay offerring of the Wilson of Peterborough round dial, not sold. Moving up-scale the BADA Fair at Chelsea took place towards the end of the month but, alas, skiing prevented attendance. I had a report that a round dial by Wm Gass (Gafs) was on display but I have yet to see it. By the way the knees held up very well in Les Arc, a destination I can recommend.

The first 20 copies of my book leave India by Fedex tomorrow so the lucky few will get their review copies very soon. Restoration of the Henry Lane of Bristol (small round dial) is complete and the Orpheus Sumart of Clerkenwell proceeds apace. Just started on a black round dial which hung in the Castle & Ball Inn in Marlborough. Busy busy but hoping for a major update to the web-site by the end of April. Byefornow

FEB 2010: CURIOUS CASE OF ROBERT LUMPKINS

The auction sale of an early rectangular shield dial, signed Robert Lumpkins, took place in Scotland. Estimated at £2-3k it sold for £8800 including the buyers premium. An important event in Scotland as it made the local BBC news and the Edinburgh Evening News. The reporting was, classically, wholly incorrect; reported as a George III clock dating from the 1797 Act etc--the usual myth, but it makes good copy for the lazy journalist. In fact, this clock dates from about 1730, before George III was born!! Loomes lists no Robert Lumpkins but there are a number of Lumpkin (singular). All of the Lumpkin(s) were working in the first third of the 18thC. The curious nature of this special clock, sold in original condition, is the nature of the alterations made over the centuries which have been extensive, the most radical of which is to move the dial up the trunk by adding a large spacer to give more drop. The movement now sits, most inelegantly, in the altered top of the trunk, most curious. It will be fascinating to see whether these very early alterations stay with the clock or if they are removed to put the clock back into the 1730 design.

Further South, at Dreweatts, the round dial by Jos Gurney sold for nearly £16000 inc buyers premium. A fine clock in good restored condition with the rare feature of a two train movement. The absence of roman numerals on the dial troubled me but the clock is correct nonetheless. Elsewhere, on the internet, a newly painted round dial signed Locke & Morris of Hythe sold for £6000.

Tavernicus has been busy buying and restoring so the archive has not been updated with the 25+ new examples of tavern clocks that have come to light since finishing the book. An early octagonal dial by Orpheus Sumart of Clerkenwell has also come to light. This rare clock has two near identical siblings; one sold by a London auction house in the late 90's and another featured in Antiquarian Horology a couple of years ago. They all have 4-wheel trains, front hung pendulums and a pulley system to extend the fall. More on this another time.

The start to the year was characterised by the dismal news that the furniture index had, yet again, declined. Notwithstanding, the trade sentiment remains bullish as in June there are about 5 major fairs and the top clock dealers are going to be out in force. One wonders whether there will be enough fresh stock to go round??

Tavernicus will be testing the 2009 knee operations very shortly with a trip to Les Arc, wish me luck. Hopefully the first copies of the book will start to arrive from India by the end of March. Bye for now.

JAN 2010 WHISTLING IN THE DARK

For most of last year, trade press reports indicated that traditional furniture was showing signs of revival and so it comes as something of a surprise that the Antique Collectors' Club Furniture Index, always published in January since 1968, revealed that the index fell by 7% with falls in all seven classes of furniture. The index is now at the 1998 level. The cause is given as poor auction results and thin trade. Hence the best and the rest syndrome means that anything other than the best is still suffering. Leaving the Georgian furniture to the kids is not what it was. They just dont want it: the Regency period is less desired and Victorian is beyond the pale.

So, dismal news for the start to the antiques year but as reported here the Fairs programme for 2010 is ambitious. Enough has been said about the January weather so let's move on to tavern clocks.

None sold or newly offerred in January but two announced. One by Robert Lumpkins to be sold in Scotland and the other by Jos Gurney which Dreweatts are to auction in mid February. More on those next month. Several hitherto uncatalogued tavern clocks have come to my attention via contacts coming through the website http://www.tavernicus.co.uk/ . Now that the book is with the printers there will be time to update the site with addtions to the Clockmakers' Archive. So, you can follow update during February.

That's it for the opening to 2010.